Results of 2007 Fearless Forecasts

As explained in a blog posted in January 2007, I like to disprove psychic predictions by doing my own fearless forecasts. Through the years, I have found that I am right about 50 percent of the time, which means I am wrong about 50 percent of the time. This is similar to the results of so-called psychics who make predictions in supermarket tabloids.

So, how did I do with my 2007 Fearless Forecasts? I was on target in exactly 50 percent of them. Here are the results:

1. Mayor John Peyton will win re-election as Mayor of Jacksonville (FL) handily. True
2. Now that Saddam Hussein is dead, things will start to settle down in Iraq. However, U.S. troops will not be withdrawn. True, although it was the result of the troop surge, not Saddam Hussein's death.
3. We will be engaged militarily with Iran to prevent their further development of nuclear weapons and to keep Israel from acting on it. Wrong
4. Osama bin Laden will be captured alive. Wrong
5. California, especially San Francisco, will have a very damaging earthquake. Wrong
6. Jacksonville (FL) will continue to be hurricane-free. El Nino will continue to suppress hurricane activity, although not as well as in 2006. True
7. An F3 or stronger tornado will hit a major American city’s central or downtown area. Wrong
8. At least one new case of Mad Cow disease will surface in the U.S. Wrong
9. The Jacksonville Jaguars will replace both its head coach and quarterback. Half True: the quarterback was replaced. Half wrong: the head coach still has his job.
10. There will be a major announcement of a new recreational or tourist attraction, possibly an aquarium or amusement park, for Jacksonville (FL). Wrong
11. Construction of the new courthouse in Jacksonville (FL) will still be stalled. True
12. With Democrats in charge of revenues and spending, the economy will flat-line unless President Bush finds his veto pen. This year will be the prelude to a recession in 2008. True
13. After brief stabilization, housing prices will continue down as unemployment heads up. True
14. Nancy Pelosi will find it difficult to manage upstart congressmen with more conservative positions. The Democratic caucus will be more divided than most expected. True
15. There will be an accident of some kind (car, plane, something or someone falling) that will really rattle everyone in the White House. It will involve or affect the President, Vice President, or members of their immediate family or closest staffers. No one will be killed or seriously hurt, however. Wrong, although there was a fire in December in the Executive Office Building where Vice President Dick Cheney has an office.
16. The St. Louis Cardinals will disappoint me this year. (Of course, anything less than another World Championship will disappoint.) Too true!