2010 Fearless Forecasts Results

Below are the results of the Fearless Forecasts I made at the beginning of 2010. I think I forgot to post them, but as you can see, the results show that I continue to be about 50/50 right and wrong. (The results are in parentheses after each prediction.) I have been doing these forecasts since college days. The practice started with a Catholic priest, chaplain of the campus Newman Club, who became concerned about us believing Jeanne Dixon, a famous soothsayer of the sixties and seventies, had special predictive skills. He challenged a group of us to make our own for that year, which he kept. The following New Year's, he took them out so we could compare our results with Dixon's. Ours were the same as hers: 50/50 true and false. For years, our group made and saved our predictions for our New Year's Eve party. I kept it up long after our party days had passed, and the results are always the same. My next posting will be my forecasts for 2011.

Jacksonville will experience a snowfall; it may not be officially measurable but it will accumulate slightly on grassy areas. (True: trace officially recorded on 12/26)


The Jaguars will not sign Tim Tebow. (True)

The St. Louis Cardinals will play in the World Series. (False)

The Bad News: Healthcare reform will be signed into law. (True)

The Good News: Healthcare reform will cause the Democrats to lose control of the House and the Senate. (Half true: Republicans took control of the House, not the Senate)

The Tea Party movement will grow and become more organized. (True)

The housing market will experience another precipitous drop in prices – 8% or more – due to more foreclosures from rising mortgage interest rates. (False: prices dropped but not by 8%+)

There will be a successful suicide bomber attack in the U.S., probably in Las Vegas. (False)

Jacksonville will not have a direct hit from a hurricane but Florida will. (Half true: neither was hit by a hurricane)

A damaging tornado will hit Jacksonville or the metropolitan area (St. John’s, Clay, or Nassau counties. (False)

A cruise ship will be hijacked by pirates or sunk by terrorists. (False)

Scientists will become more alarmed over seismic activity in the Yellowstone caldera. (Neutral: some are; some aren’t)

The economy will not recover much, especially unemployment, which will remain above 8%. (True)

The stock market will have a correction back down to @ 8,000, then sluggishly return to above 10,000 but less than 11,500 by year-end. (Half true: dropped but closed slightly above 11,600)

The Senate will block immigration reform if it has any type of amnesty for illegals. (True)

The upper Mississippi River valley will have major flooding this Spring. (False: had some)

Congress will halt the closing of Guantanemo or the transfer of terrorists to Illinois. (True)