2009 Fearless Forecasts

Another year, another set of fearless forecasts designed to prove psychics are no more reliable predictors of the future than anybody else. Here are my 2009 predictions. Please join in the fun and make your own. If you are having a New Year’s Eve party, get your guests involved. Write all their forecasts down and save the list to reveal the results at next year’s party.

· The economic downturn will be much worse by year-end. Some economists will say we are in a depression as predicted by the Elliott Wave Theory.
· Deflation will be a problem. Housing prices, in particular, will be in free fall again or still.
· The Dow will drop to 5,500 or lower, then rebound to around 8,000. Gold will go to above 1,000.
· Unemployment will be 9.9% or higher by year-end.
· The bailouts of the financial system will not work, and large banks, brokerage firms, etc. will fail because the Federal Reserve Bank cannot lend at less than 0% interest.
· Thousands of retail stores and restaurants, including national chains, will be forced into bankruptcy or will close to stop losses.
· Shortly after Barack Obama’s inauguration, he and/or his staff will be implicated in Chicago or Illinois political corruption. By year’s end, the media will have turned on Obama with vicious attacks.
· The Midwest will have flooding problems again this year due to higher than normal snowfall.
· A Montana earthquake will surprise people. It will cause little damage and no loss of life.
· We will be mired in an Afghan war where we will be unsure who our enemies and friends are. It will be compared to what the Russians experienced or Vietnam.
· Suicide bombers will come to North America, either in Canada or the U.S. If here, they will target Las Vegas.
· Jacksonville will continue to dodge hurricanes despite a very active hurricane season.
· Israel will attack Iran if we do not, and this will cause an explosive counter-reaction among Arabs. Russia, not the U.S., will intervene. Most of Europe, especially Germany, will side with Russia against Israel.
· Despite saber rattling, Pakistan and India will not go to war.
· U.S. troops will make repeated incursions into Pakistan’s northern areas to flush out Al-Qaeda.
· Mexican drug lord terrorists will continue cross-border intrusions into the U.S. The tragic death of an innocent child will galvanize public opinion and force a reluctant administration to crack down and counter-attack.

Here’s one much longer-term prediction: If Obama fulfills his campaign promise to raise taxes on the wealthy, it will guarantee a depression, and he will become the 21st century’s Herbert Hoover. It will also assure the return of Republican control of the House in 2010 and his defeat in 2012.

2008 Fearless Forecasts Results

Here are the results of my fearless forecasts for 2008 to prove psychics have no more power than anyone else to predict the future:
· Ron Paul will shock mainstream media and alarm Republican party activists by a stronger-than-expected showing (around 10%) in many of the primaries. (A tiny bit of truth. Paul did better than expected in several primaries.)
· Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee for President. (Wrong)
· Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination and the Presidency. (Wrong)
· The outcome of the 2008 Presidential election will be strongly influenced by Third Party or independent candidates who will pull votes from both Republicans and Democrats. The winner will have less than 50% of the total vote. (Wrong)
· There will be a mild, not major, tsunami along the Pacific coast triggered by an Alaskan earthquake. (Wrong)
· The Atlantic hurricane season will continue to confound forecasters by being less active than predicted. However, Florida will have at least one category two or three hurricane. It will not affect Jacksonville, except for rain. (Mixed. It was the fourth most active season on record. Florida, but not Jacksonville, was hit by a hurricane. Jacksonville received a direct hit from tropical storm Fay, which dumped a lot of rain.)
· There will be a terrible rafting accident either in Colorado or on the Colorado River. (Correct)
· Housing prices will continue to fall, and the economy will be in full recession after the election and weak all year. The dollar will be weaker, too. (Correct)
· The drought in the Southeast will be broken, and residents will be wishing for less rain due to flooding by year's end. (Mixed. Rain has increased this Fall, but there has not been enough to say the drought is over.)
· The Florida4Marriage amendment will not pass because 60% of voters must approve it. It will get over 50% approval, however. (Wrong – Thank you, God.)
· At least one current or former member of Jacksonville's (FL) City Council will be indicted due to sunshine law violations. (Wrong. The Grand Jury report was very critical of several members, but there were no indictments.)
· Something from or in space will cause a combination of alarm, fear, and wonder. (Wrong. The discovery of a black hole in our galaxy surprised astronomers and might qualify.)

Of the 12 predictions, I was correct on only two (17%), partially correct and partially wrong on three (25%), and dead wrong on 7 (58%). Psychics do no better. Now, feel free to join the fun by posting your own fearless forecasts for 2009.