2009 Fearless Forecasts

Another year, another set of fearless forecasts designed to prove psychics are no more reliable predictors of the future than anybody else. Here are my 2009 predictions. Please join in the fun and make your own. If you are having a New Year’s Eve party, get your guests involved. Write all their forecasts down and save the list to reveal the results at next year’s party.

· The economic downturn will be much worse by year-end. Some economists will say we are in a depression as predicted by the Elliott Wave Theory.
· Deflation will be a problem. Housing prices, in particular, will be in free fall again or still.
· The Dow will drop to 5,500 or lower, then rebound to around 8,000. Gold will go to above 1,000.
· Unemployment will be 9.9% or higher by year-end.
· The bailouts of the financial system will not work, and large banks, brokerage firms, etc. will fail because the Federal Reserve Bank cannot lend at less than 0% interest.
· Thousands of retail stores and restaurants, including national chains, will be forced into bankruptcy or will close to stop losses.
· Shortly after Barack Obama’s inauguration, he and/or his staff will be implicated in Chicago or Illinois political corruption. By year’s end, the media will have turned on Obama with vicious attacks.
· The Midwest will have flooding problems again this year due to higher than normal snowfall.
· A Montana earthquake will surprise people. It will cause little damage and no loss of life.
· We will be mired in an Afghan war where we will be unsure who our enemies and friends are. It will be compared to what the Russians experienced or Vietnam.
· Suicide bombers will come to North America, either in Canada or the U.S. If here, they will target Las Vegas.
· Jacksonville will continue to dodge hurricanes despite a very active hurricane season.
· Israel will attack Iran if we do not, and this will cause an explosive counter-reaction among Arabs. Russia, not the U.S., will intervene. Most of Europe, especially Germany, will side with Russia against Israel.
· Despite saber rattling, Pakistan and India will not go to war.
· U.S. troops will make repeated incursions into Pakistan’s northern areas to flush out Al-Qaeda.
· Mexican drug lord terrorists will continue cross-border intrusions into the U.S. The tragic death of an innocent child will galvanize public opinion and force a reluctant administration to crack down and counter-attack.

Here’s one much longer-term prediction: If Obama fulfills his campaign promise to raise taxes on the wealthy, it will guarantee a depression, and he will become the 21st century’s Herbert Hoover. It will also assure the return of Republican control of the House in 2010 and his defeat in 2012.

2008 Fearless Forecasts Results

Here are the results of my fearless forecasts for 2008 to prove psychics have no more power than anyone else to predict the future:
· Ron Paul will shock mainstream media and alarm Republican party activists by a stronger-than-expected showing (around 10%) in many of the primaries. (A tiny bit of truth. Paul did better than expected in several primaries.)
· Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee for President. (Wrong)
· Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination and the Presidency. (Wrong)
· The outcome of the 2008 Presidential election will be strongly influenced by Third Party or independent candidates who will pull votes from both Republicans and Democrats. The winner will have less than 50% of the total vote. (Wrong)
· There will be a mild, not major, tsunami along the Pacific coast triggered by an Alaskan earthquake. (Wrong)
· The Atlantic hurricane season will continue to confound forecasters by being less active than predicted. However, Florida will have at least one category two or three hurricane. It will not affect Jacksonville, except for rain. (Mixed. It was the fourth most active season on record. Florida, but not Jacksonville, was hit by a hurricane. Jacksonville received a direct hit from tropical storm Fay, which dumped a lot of rain.)
· There will be a terrible rafting accident either in Colorado or on the Colorado River. (Correct)
· Housing prices will continue to fall, and the economy will be in full recession after the election and weak all year. The dollar will be weaker, too. (Correct)
· The drought in the Southeast will be broken, and residents will be wishing for less rain due to flooding by year's end. (Mixed. Rain has increased this Fall, but there has not been enough to say the drought is over.)
· The Florida4Marriage amendment will not pass because 60% of voters must approve it. It will get over 50% approval, however. (Wrong – Thank you, God.)
· At least one current or former member of Jacksonville's (FL) City Council will be indicted due to sunshine law violations. (Wrong. The Grand Jury report was very critical of several members, but there were no indictments.)
· Something from or in space will cause a combination of alarm, fear, and wonder. (Wrong. The discovery of a black hole in our galaxy surprised astronomers and might qualify.)

Of the 12 predictions, I was correct on only two (17%), partially correct and partially wrong on three (25%), and dead wrong on 7 (58%). Psychics do no better. Now, feel free to join the fun by posting your own fearless forecasts for 2009.

2008 Fearless Forecasts

Here are my fearless forecasts for 2008 to prove psychics have no more power than anyone else to predict the future:

1. Ron Paul will shock mainstream media and alarm Republican party activists by a stronger-than-expected showing (around 10%) in many of the primaries.
2. Mitt Romney wil be the Republican nominee for President.
3. Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination and the Presidency.
4. The outcome of the 2008 Presidential election will be strongly influenced by Third Party or independent candidates who will pull votes from both Republicans and Democrats. The winner will have less than 50% of the total vote.
5. There will be a mild, not major, tsunami along the Pacific coast triggered by an Alaskan earthquake.
6. The Atlantic hurricane season will continue to confound forecasters by being less active than predicted. However, Florida will have at least one category two or three hurricane. It will not affect Jacksonville, except for rain.
7. There will be a terrible rafting accident either in Colorado or on the Colorado River.
8. Housing prices will continue to fall, and the economy will be in full recession after the election and weak all year. The dollar will be weaker, too.
9. The drought in the Southeast will be broken, and residents will be wishing for less rain due to flooding by year's end.
10. The Florida4Marriage amendment will not pass because 60% of voters must approve it. It will get over 50% approval, however.
11. At least one current or former member of Jacksonville's (FL) City Council will be indicted due to sunshine law violations.
12. Something from or in space will cause a combination of alarm, fear, and wonder.

Now, feel free to join the fun by posting your own fearless forecasts for 2008.

Results of 2007 Fearless Forecasts

As explained in a blog posted in January 2007, I like to disprove psychic predictions by doing my own fearless forecasts. Through the years, I have found that I am right about 50 percent of the time, which means I am wrong about 50 percent of the time. This is similar to the results of so-called psychics who make predictions in supermarket tabloids.

So, how did I do with my 2007 Fearless Forecasts? I was on target in exactly 50 percent of them. Here are the results:

1. Mayor John Peyton will win re-election as Mayor of Jacksonville (FL) handily. True
2. Now that Saddam Hussein is dead, things will start to settle down in Iraq. However, U.S. troops will not be withdrawn. True, although it was the result of the troop surge, not Saddam Hussein's death.
3. We will be engaged militarily with Iran to prevent their further development of nuclear weapons and to keep Israel from acting on it. Wrong
4. Osama bin Laden will be captured alive. Wrong
5. California, especially San Francisco, will have a very damaging earthquake. Wrong
6. Jacksonville (FL) will continue to be hurricane-free. El Nino will continue to suppress hurricane activity, although not as well as in 2006. True
7. An F3 or stronger tornado will hit a major American city’s central or downtown area. Wrong
8. At least one new case of Mad Cow disease will surface in the U.S. Wrong
9. The Jacksonville Jaguars will replace both its head coach and quarterback. Half True: the quarterback was replaced. Half wrong: the head coach still has his job.
10. There will be a major announcement of a new recreational or tourist attraction, possibly an aquarium or amusement park, for Jacksonville (FL). Wrong
11. Construction of the new courthouse in Jacksonville (FL) will still be stalled. True
12. With Democrats in charge of revenues and spending, the economy will flat-line unless President Bush finds his veto pen. This year will be the prelude to a recession in 2008. True
13. After brief stabilization, housing prices will continue down as unemployment heads up. True
14. Nancy Pelosi will find it difficult to manage upstart congressmen with more conservative positions. The Democratic caucus will be more divided than most expected. True
15. There will be an accident of some kind (car, plane, something or someone falling) that will really rattle everyone in the White House. It will involve or affect the President, Vice President, or members of their immediate family or closest staffers. No one will be killed or seriously hurt, however. Wrong, although there was a fire in December in the Executive Office Building where Vice President Dick Cheney has an office.
16. The St. Louis Cardinals will disappoint me this year. (Of course, anything less than another World Championship will disappoint.) Too true!

Pat Robertson Predicts Terrorist Attack in 2007

From the Associated Press, Jan. 3, 2007: Pat Robertson, on a 700 Club broadcast, predicted a "mass killing" terrorist attack "sometime after September." Robertson claimed God had "told him" this attack would happen. However, he admitted that he sometimes misses on his annual predictions. (See http://www.beliefnet.com/story/208/story_20853_1.html for full details.)

Now, I have no problem with Rev. Robertson or anyone speculating on what may happen in the future. In college and afterwards, my friends and I enjoyed an annual parlor game of predicting the new year's events. One of us would record and save the list of everyone's predictions, which would be read at the next New Year's Eve party.

This tradition began, to the best of my recollection, when one of us (I forget who but it wasn't me) became fascinated by tabloid prognostications. Our college chaplain, Fr. Anton J. Borer, SMB, challenged our gullibility about these so-called psychics by having us make our own forecasts. We predicted things that would happen worldwide or to the nation or more locally. We also forecast things in our own and our family's or friends' lives. He carefully recorded all our predictions. His theory was we would be just as accurate as then-famous forecasters such as Jeanne Dixon.

That is exactly what happened that first year. We found we were right about fifty percent of the time, which meant we were wrong fifty percent. That batting average continued to hold more or less true every year. After that first year, none of us took any such predictions seriously and joked about our "fearless forecasts" made as a way to pass the time before midnight on New Year's Eve.

In later years, I continued this tradition with my Mom and now do it by myself. Each year, a few predictions are right on the money. Others are partially true; others are completely wrong. In no way to I consider even the accurate ones some kind of psychic ability. I believe that anyone will get lucky on a few if they make enough predictions.

Pat Robertson crosses the bar, though, when he states that "God told him during a recent prayer retreat that major cities and possibly millions of people will be affected by the attack..." (emphasis added). The words "God told" makes Robertson's prediction a prophecy. That means it must happen. If it does not, then there are only two conclusions. Either God is a liar or Robertson is a false prophet. Robertson digs himself a deeper hole when he cautions, "Sometimes I miss" on these predictions given to him by God. Jeremiah 23: 31-32 (New International Version) warns:

"Yes," declares the LORD, "I am against the prophets who wag their own tongues and yet declare, 'The LORD declares.' Indeed, I am against those who prophesy false dreams," declares the LORD. "They tell them and lead my people astray with their reckless lies, yet I did not send or appoint them. They do not benefit these people in the least," declares the LORD.

According to John 8:44, Satan, not God, is the father of lies. Prophecies from God will occur precisely as predicted down to the minutest detail. Anyone, including Pat Robertson, who claims an event will happen because God said it would must be 100 percent accurate. Deuteronomy 18:21-22 (NIV) provides the way to discern prophecy:

You may say to yourselves, "How can we know when a message has not been spoken by the Lord?" If what a prophet proclaims in the ame of the Lord does not take place or come true, that is a message the Lord has not spoken. That prophet has spoken presumptuously. Do not be afraid of him.

God does not "miss." If the event does not happen, then believers can know that the forecast was authored by Satan, and the forecaster is a false prophet. It is a good thing that Robertson did not live during Old Testament times. The penalty for "misses" in prophecy was death.