2011 Fearless Forecasts

Florida, but not Jacksonville, will take a direct hit from a category 3 or higher hurricane.


A major earthquake (6.0 or higher) will rattle a major city on the West Coast.

The Tea Party will strongly influence the Jacksonville city council and mayoral elections. Rick Mullaney will not be our next mayor.

Sarah Palin will decide not to run for President.

Inflation will be above 5% by year-end, primarily due to higher food and gas prices. Gas will be $5/gallon or more.

A second round of foreclosures will cause further declines in the real estate market. Commercial real estate defaults will bring another banking crisis, although not as severe as the last one.

The stock market will decline during the first three quarters but rise slowly in the fourth quarter back to 11,500.

War will break out on the Korean peninsula. China will intervene to stop it.

Israel will take matters into her own hands and strike at Iran’s nuclear production facilities. Obama will be furious at Israel.

Terrorists will hit a train or subway in the U.S.

Osama bin Laden will be captured, thanks to a Special Ops. Unit.

A tornado will hit Godfrey, Brighton or Jerseyville in Illinois.

Hilary Clinton will resign as Secretary of State.

A dormant volcano will roar to life in Europe or Russia.

An earthquake in Afghanistan will kill and injure some U.S. troops, but the subsequent rush to bring aid to locals will help solidify U.S.-Afghan relations with local leaders.

Flooding from Spring runoff in western Colorado or Utah will take out a portion of the old D&RGW rail-line between Denver and Salt Lake City.

Unemployment will stay stubbornly above 9%.

President Obama will announce he will not run in 2012 due to revelations of the Chicago-style corruption throughout his inner circle. Indictments will be expected, if not delivered, by year-end.

Rahm Immanuel, Obama’s former chief-of-staff, will not be elected Mayor of Chicago.

A major art museum will suffer a truly stunning and audacious art heist.

Although Obamacare will not be repealed, Congressional Republicans will be successful in defunding major provisions. Federal courts will continue to hand down mixed decisions on its constitutionality. Eventually, the Supreme Court will declare the mandatory purchase of health insurance unconstitutional but not in 2011.

The news media will be abuzz with the “state nullification” movement as a way of reining in federal power.

Jacksonville Waterspout, An Awesome Sight

Friday afternoon, June 26, 2009, had a little excitement here in Jackonville, Florida. A fully formed waterspout took a leisurely cruise up the St. Johns River from near the Buckman Bridge to San Marco. It was visible for over twenty minutes.

Around 5 p.m., a friend called me to tell me to look out my window because there was a tornado. I thought she was nuts. The sun was shining. I live on the third floor on the east side of a high rise apartment, and she is on the opposite side of the building on the 12th floor. I had my television on a local channel. There was a severe thunderstorm warning, there was no tornado watch or warning. I told her I would come right up. I wanted to reassure her.

My first clue that maybe something really was happening was when I got on the elevator. Another resident told me she was going to her apartment "to escape the tornado." However, this resident is mentally challenged so I was not convinced.

The second clue was the remarks of one of our security workers. She was rushing downstairs and said to me, "Be careful, there is bad weather nearby." That gave me pause. Maybe my friend was not being alarmist.

When I walked into her apartment and looked out the west-facing window, my jaw dropped. Right in the middle of the window was this perfectly formed stovepipe tornado reaching from a wall-cloud to below the tree line. I was shocked. I had a hard time believing my eyes.

The sight was both frightening and beautiful. It was a rich blue, backlit by the sun. It was on the leading edge of a storm that trailed behind with menacing black clouds. I was mesmerized. The photo taken by a Florida Times-Union photographer from University Blvd. West is exactly what we saw. Go to: http://photos.jacksonville.com/mycapture/enlarge.asp?image=24344779&event=785549&CategoryID=29031 to see it.

Together, my friend and I watched the tornado slowly move from south to north, which was a relief. It was not moving towards us. I said to my friend, "If it is on the ground, there is going to be major damage." However, as I watched it, I became hopeful that it was a waterspout on the river. The distance from us looked right, and the blue color told me it was not picking up debris.

As it moved further to the north, it gradually shrank in size and began to rope out, indicating that it was weakening. The TV stations began reporting on it, confirming that it was a waterspout.

My biggest concern was the bend in the river at downtown. Would it follow the river around that right angle bend or would it make landfall into downtown? What would happen if it crossed the Fuller Warren bridge which carries I-95 across the river on the south edge of downtown? It was the height of evening rush hour. There are some very dramatic shots looking south across the bridge at the approaching waterspout and the traffic on the bridge. Fortunately, it dissipated or lifted before reaching the bridge.

The storm that was trailing to the south of it hit our building full force, obscuring our view of the waterspout. The lightning was horrendous and very close, and the rain came down in wind-whipped sheets. There was a small amount of pea-size hail. I did back away from the windows, then.

The television stations showed several pictures of funnel clouds reforming and attempting to lower over downtown or Riverside, but none of them reached the ground. Just this morning on Channel 4, I saw a Riverside viewer's photo looking straight up into a funnel. It was close enough to the ground to see the debris (leaves, shingles, small branches) swirling in and around it. Fortunately, there was only minimal damage from the storm.

Having grown up in the Midwest, I went through many tornado drills. Afterwards, I realized I broke all the rules that had been drummed into me about what to do in a tornado. I went up, not down, in a highrise. I did not get away from the windows. I did not go into an interior room or stay out in the hall. Instead, I stood there and watched. I now have an inkling of what attracts storm-chasers to see tornados. It was an awesome sight.

Fearless Forecasts for 2007

How time flies when we’re having fun, and even when we’re not. Here it is mid-February, and I still haven’t posted my “Fearless Forecasts” for 2007. These were completed during the first week of January. I do these every year to prove that psychics are no better prognosticators than the average person. (See the entry for January 5, 2007 for how this New Year’s tradition began.) They are in no particular order. So, here goes:


1. Mayor John Peyton will win re-election as Mayor of Jacksonville (FL) handily.

2. Now that Saddam Hussein is dead, things will start to settle down in Iraq. However, U.S. troops will not be withdrawn.

3. We will be engaged militarily with Iran to prevent their further development of nuclear weapons and to keep Israel from acting on it.

4. Osama bin Laden will be captured alive.

5. California, especially San Francisco, will have a very damaging earthquake.

6. Jacksonville (FL) will continue to be hurricane-free. El Nino will continue to suppress hurricane activity, although not as well as in 2006.

7. An F3 or stronger tornado will hit a major American city’s central or downtown area.

8. At least one new case of Mad Cow disease will surface in the U.S.

9. The Jacksonville Jaguars will replace both its head coach and quarterback.

10. There will be a major announcement of a new recreational or tourist attraction, possibly an aquarium or amusement park, for Jacksonville (FL).

11. Construction of the new courthouse in Jacksonville (FL) will still be stalled.

12. With Democrats in charge of revenues and spending, the economy will flat-line unless President Bush finds his veto pen. This year will be the prelude to a recession in 2008.

13. After brief stabilization, housing prices will continue down as unemployment heads up.

14. Nancy Pelosi will find it difficult to manage upstart congressmen with more conservative positions. The Democratic caucus will be more divided than most expected.

15. There will be an accident of some kind (car, plane, something or someone falling) that will really rattle everyone in the White House. It will involve or affect the President, Vice President, or members of their immediate family or closest staffers. No one will be killed or seriously hurt, however.

16. The St. Louis Cardinals will disappoint me this year. (Of course, anything less than another World Championship will disappoint.)